In a recent interview with CNBC, prominent China hawk Kyle Bass expressed his belief that Chinese President Xi Jinping is determined to “bring war to the West” and invade Taiwan before the end of 2024. While some may dismiss Bass’s prediction, he argues that Western nations, particularly Wall Street, are too focused on the economic implications of such an attack and fail to listen to the words of Xi. In this article, we will critically analyze Bass’s assertions and explore the factors that led him to predict a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Xi Jinping’s Agenda
According to Kyle Bass, Xi Jinping’s agenda is centered around the reacquisition of Taiwan, which he believes can be discerned from the Chinese president’s speeches since 2017. Bass draws a parallel between Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggesting that both leaders prioritize their political goals over economic considerations. While many in the financial sector argue that an invasion of Taiwan would not make economic sense, Bass urges people to listen to Xi’s words and take them seriously.
The dispute over Taiwan’s status has long been a contentious topic. Taiwan has been governed independently of China since the end of a civil war in 1949, but Beijing considers it a part of its territory. The West generally sees Taiwan as a self-governing nation, while China advocates for “reunification.” China’s foreign ministry has emphasized that Taiwan is an issue of Chinese “sovereignty and security” and has warned against foreign interference.
Bass highlights three main signals that point to a potential conflict between China and Taiwan. Firstly, he notes that China has significantly increased its military drills around Taiwan. While Bass claims to have consulted military experts on this matter, independent verification is lacking. Taiwan, on the other hand, has also been ramping up its own military exercises, escalating tensions in the region.
Secondly, Bass observes that Beijing has implemented mainland changes in preparation for a potential war, including the introduction of a new counterespionage law. This law expands the government’s power to address perceived threats to national security. While such measures can be seen as defensive in nature, they also indicate a readiness for confrontation.
Lastly, Bass points to China’s continued high-level production of marine diesel refining as a signal of increased demand for marine fuel. Despite a slowing economy, Beijing has doubled the number of licensed bonded marine fuel dealers since 2020. While exports of low-sulfur oil fell in 2022, this sustained production suggests that China is gearing up for maritime activities.
Bass emphasizes the significance of these signals and their convergence in pointing toward a potential conflict between China and Taiwan. He underscores that the actions being taken align with what is expected in preparation for war. However, it is important to note that while geopolitical tensions in the region are mounting, war should always be seen as a last resort, and efforts to maintain peace must be pursued vigorously.
Kyle Bass’s prediction of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2024 has sparked attention and debate. While some may question the accuracy of his forecast, it is crucial to consider the underlying factors and signals he highlights. Whether or not his prediction ultimately proves true, the tensions surrounding Taiwan and China’s territorial claims should be monitored closely, and diplomatic efforts should be prioritized to ensure a peaceful resolution. The international community must remain vigilant and engage in open dialogue to mitigate potential risks and maintain stability in the region.
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