Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group, has stated that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Russian mercenary chief, is a “dead man walking” after leading a failed rebellion against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Prigozhin, who is a former Putin ally and founder of the private military group Wagner, attempted to incite an armed revolt against Putin over the weekend but ultimately failed. This rebellion was seen as the most significant threat to Putin’s grip on power in his 23-year tenure as President. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented that the episode exposed “cracks” in the Kremlin that were not previously evident.
Bremmer believes that Prigozhin is unlikely to survive for much longer given the failed insurrection. He stated that Putin has imprisoned and assassinated people for far less than what Prigozhin has done to him, and it is inconceivable that Putin will allow him to live any longer than is absolutely necessary. However, Bremmer also emphasized that this failed rebellion does not mean that Putin is suddenly on the brink of leaving power. Putin has been able to swiftly put out unarmed protests in the past, and there were no high-level defections from the Russian military, government, or oligarchs during this incident.
The Failed Rebellion and Deal with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
The Wagner fighters, led by Prigozhin, marched toward Moscow, causing the Kremlin to scramble to protect the capital. They reportedly took control of Rostov-on-Don, a strategically symbolic city as the seat of the Southern Military District for the Russian military, a logistical and command hub for Putin’s war on Ukraine. However, the rebellion was aborted when Prigozhin made an abrupt announcement.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal with Putin, where Prigozhin would go into exile in Belarus in exchange for calling off the insurrection. The Kremlin agreed to drop the criminal case against Prigozhin, according to the state-controlled outlet TASS. This deal exposes a level of unprecedented weakness for Putin, according to Bremmer.
The bitter feud between Prigozhin and the Moscow military establishment escalated after the Kremlin wanted all private mercenary forces to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry by July 1, which Prigozhin refused. The standoff spilled into the open when Prigozhin launched an armed rebellion, accusing the Russian army of firing at his mercenaries.
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote on Twitter that Prigozhin’s objective was not to overthrow the government but to draw Putin’s attention and impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities, including a defined role, security, and funding. She added that these were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin’s merits in taking Bakhmut would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin’s serious attention.
The Wagner fighters played an important role in Putin’s war against Ukraine and were a significant force in the capture of the eastern city of Bakhmut.
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion against Putin has exposed cracks in the Kremlin, and he himself may face dire consequences. However, Putin’s grip on power remains strong, and this incident does not mean that he is on the brink of leaving power. The failed rebellion also highlights the bitter feud between Prigozhin and the Moscow military establishment over private mercenary forces’ contracts with the Defense Ministry.
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